tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post8145969944909153812..comments2023-06-16T09:39:07.504-04:00Comments on Harpocrates Speaks: Anti-vaxers and Math Don't MixTodd W.http://www.blogger.com/profile/16192694127268195554noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post-52687555562795918472014-05-10T12:23:44.669-04:002014-05-10T12:23:44.669-04:00Remember, these are the same people who think we d...Remember, these are the same people who think we don't have to vaccinate because the chances of getting measles, mumps, pertussis, diphtheria, etc is very low in the USA. They say that because there are fewer than a certain number each year.<br /><br />They seem to forget that it is because that most of the population is vaccinated! An example is <a href="http://lizditz.typepad.com/i_speak_of_dreams/2014/04/dear-parents-are-you-being-lied-to.html?cid=6a00d83451b6fc69e201a73daa54de970d#comment-6a00d83451b6fc69e201a73daa54de970d" rel="nofollow"> this person commenting on Liz Ditz's article</a>. She seems adamant her statistics only apply to the USA, and at one point said:<br />"Chris, lets presume for minute that you are correct and that the reason these diseases are not found much anymore is due to vaccinations. As I asked in my article, what are the criteria for determining when a vaccination is no longer necessary?"<br /><br />Aargh. I asked her several times to thank her responsible neighbors who vaccinate for protecting her family from diseases with community immunity. She never responded to that.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14428361191787397415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post-24541389112483723682014-05-09T20:23:38.717-04:002014-05-09T20:23:38.717-04:00Thanks, Ren. And the 1,000-chamber revolver is a g...Thanks, Ren. And the 1,000-chamber revolver is a good analogy. I may have to steal that.Todd W.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16192694127268195554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post-56451321419963265992014-05-09T20:22:36.213-04:002014-05-09T20:22:36.213-04:00@Science Mom
I'm not all that prickly about p...@Science Mom<br /><br />I'm not all that prickly about people pointing out my typos, especially when it drastically changes the meaning. Struck out the offending word and put the right one in. Thanks!Todd W.https://www.blogger.com/profile/16192694127268195554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post-47634056746855846592014-05-09T18:28:17.873-04:002014-05-09T18:28:17.873-04:00Great post Todd and you hit on all the important p...Great post Todd and you hit on all the important points of how to parse measles case-fatality rates. Anti-vaxxers don't understand even basic epidemiology and for some strange reason believe that nature occurs in some predictable linear fashion. It doesn't and that goes for their goofy supplements and herbal remedies as well.<br /><br />I don't know if you are as prickly of pedantry as our friend but this"<br /><i>If we can do that, then we won't need the disease any more, and there will be one less vaccine on the list.</i><br /><br />Change "disease" to "vaccine" and it's correct; I know that it was just a slip. Science Momhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08832263571481452559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3609683919099708226.post-5453599797328355992014-05-09T13:27:09.523-04:002014-05-09T13:27:09.523-04:00The way that I explain the risk to the uninitiated...The way that I explain the risk to the uninitiated is for them to think of a big gun with a barrel capable of holding 1,000 bullets. One lonely bullet is then put into the barrel and people start playing Russian roulette with it. If all they hear is a click and no detonation, they only get measles. If they hear a detonation, they get measles and death.<br /><br />If you pass around the gun, most of the people will get a click and no bullet. You can pass it around to 1,000 people and never get the bullet. You can even go over the 1,000 mark and not get a bullet for a while. It's all about chance and odds and randomness and stuff.<br /><br />Because we don't see thousands upon thousands of cases anymore, that statistic of complications in 1 to 3 per 1,000 may not hold up. Thankfully, we hit the "reset" button on the chances of complications each time a transmission chain is cut (due to nothing but vaccinated/immune people). Statistically speaking, you'd need about 5,000 sustained cases in one big outbreak (almost like what Wales saw a couple of years back) to see that statistic come alive.<br /><br />But why would you take that chance? Well, the anti-vaccine people are taking that chance, because it is their refusal to be vaccinated that is changing the game in North America. Instead of measles being eliminated (not eradicated) from the continent, it's making a comeback, and their actions alone are contributing in a big way to it: http://www.epidemiological.net/what-would-it-take-for-measles-to-not-be-eliminated-in-the-united-states/<br /><br />Good post, Todd. Renhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02165486823815850422noreply@blogger.com